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Disenrollment from Traditional Medicare is Slowing, Particularly Among Non-Dual-eligibles and Beneficiaries Who are in the Last Year of Life

By Inna Cintina, PhD, Lanlan Xu, PhD, and Lane Koenig, PhD
October 1, 2025

As the popularity of Medicare Advantage (MA) plans increased, so did the disenrollment from Traditional Medicare (TM). In previous work, we found that increasing rates of disenrollment from TM accounted for two-thirds (67%) of the growth in the share of MA enrollment between 2019 and 2020. In this blog, we update previously reported disenrollment trends through 2020 with more recent data (2021-2024) and assess rates by different population groups. We separately report findings for Medicare-only beneficiaries and Medicare-Medicaid beneficiaries (dual eligibles), as well as for new Medicare beneficiaries and those who are in the last year of life.

Enrollment in MA continues to increase but at a slower rate due to less disenrollment from TM and more switching from MA to TM. Between 2023 and 2024, disenrollment from TM accounted for 53% of growth in new enrollment in MA, down from 67% between 2019 and 2020.  Between 2016 and 2024, the TM disenrollment rate reached its highest point in 2021 at 8.1% and stayed at around the 8% mark until declining to 7% in 2024. The MA disenrollment rate, on the other hand, has increased from 1.9% to 2.7% between 2021 and 2024. In 2024, TM-to-MA switching rates […]

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